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Then and Now: 2021 #1
Will Pres. Biden Continue The Use of Force Strategy Set by Pres. Obama?
The year-1513-Machiavelli states in the Prince: "If you do not intervene, you will remain the prey of the Victor…Princes who lack resolution take the path of neutralization in order to avoid a present danger and for the most part find it the path to ruin…”
Year 2013. Pres. Obama condemned and threatened to use force against Assad for using poison gas on the people of Syria. Pres. Obama however, became a “prey of the Victor” when he set a pre- condition to authorizing that force. The pre- condition was Congress also had to agree in a joint resolution to use force. Except for some of the “Media” no one expected Congress to authorize force. Pres. Obama then used Congress's failure as the reason for no action by the United States. Pres. Obama subsequently claimed all the lethal gas was removed by an agreement he made with Russia.
Year 2017. The U.S. under a new administration led an attack with England and France on storage facilities of poison gases in Syria and that were being actively used against Syrian civilians.
The two China Policy has been used for the last 40 years to preserve peace between China, the U.S., and Taiwan by not making China acknowledge the independence of Taiwan. Forty years ago China could not have taken Taiwan back by force. Today China may be able to, depending on which countries join an International Coalition with Taiwan to oppose China economically and militarily. In the two China policy the U.S. recognizes the Chinese mainland as China. The U.S. has not established official relations with Taiwan, but Pres. Biden is changing this as set out by Peter Beinart in a May 6, 2021 N.Y. Times editorial he stated:
“…Media coverage of President Biden’s foreign policy tends to focus on his efforts to withdraw from Afghanistan, get tough on Russia and negotiate with Iran. But none of those may prove as consequential as Mr. Biden’s quiet, incremental moves to establish official relations with Taiwan. Because only his policy toward Taiwan is meaningfully increasing the risk of world war...“
When China threatens war to take Taiwan, if Pres. Biden, follows the Pres. Obama Strategy he will pledge to authorize the use of all necessary force to defend Taiwan on the pre condition that Congress approve the use of this force. This is the path of neutralization and Pres. Biden will then have also become a “prey of the Victor.” No reasonable person or Country including China will conclude that Congress will approve the use of all necessary force to stop China from taking Taiwan.
Year 2021. China’s priority is to take back Taiwan. Will Pres. Biden by relying on the Obama Strategy provide support for China‘s belief that the U.S. (Congress) will not go to war to defend Taiwan? With the belief that it will not be opposed by U.S. military force, will China then use the recognition of Taiwan by Pres. Biden as China’s public explanation to justify China’s need to protect it’s national interest to move militarily on Taiwan?
If all other alternatives fail or are not used the last option to save Taiwan and a growing part of the Free World from being crushed by China is the Churchill option:
“…We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender…”
Winston Churchill - House of Commons, June 4, 1940.
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These concepts are developed more fully in the Do It as Americans ebook,
“Do It As Americans” (110 page PDF).